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Scenes from the leading sectors of the December jobs report: sectors of...
- by New Deal democratFor nearly two decades, my focus on economic reporting online has been finding and examining leading indicators; those datapoints that tell us where the economy in general, and...
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Scenes from the jobs report 2: the unemployment rate and consumption: weak,...
- by New Deal democratYesterday I looked at some employment metrics from Friday’s jobs report. Today let’s look at un- (and under-)employment.Every Thursday I repeat the mantra that jobless claims...
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Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update
- by New Deal democratThe drought in new data ends tomorrow with consumer inflation. In preparation, let’s take a look at real aggregate payrolls.These increased 0.2% in December, one of the lower...
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The good news on jobless claims continues
- by New Deal democratThe recent streak of very positive news on jobless claims continued this week.Initial claims declined -1,000 to 201,000. The four week moving average declined -250 to 207,750....
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Consumer inflation remains all about the lagged effect of house prices
- by New Deal democratConsumer inflation in December continued to be a tale of the relative importance of gas prices vs. the lagged effect of home prices.Headline inflation increased 0.3%, and was up...
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Producer prices flat, commodities decline, confirming shelter as sole...
- by New Deal democratOnce again producer prices confirmed that the only significant problem in inflation is shelter.In December commodity prices declined -1.3%. For finished goods they declined...
View ArticleWeekly Indicators for January 8 - 12 at Seeking Alpha
- by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.There are almost always a few interesting ripples in the pond. In the past month, notably there has been the sudden collapse in...
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For MLK Day: Blacks are faring better during the post-pandemic Boom than at...
- by New Deal democratOn this MLK Jr. national holiday, let’s take a look at how Blacks are faring in the current economy.And the answer is, pretty good!The unemployment rate for Blacks in December...
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As vehicles and outdoor appliances become increasingly electric, long term...
- by New Deal democratWhat is the “real” cost of gasoline? When measuring this, some people compare with the CPI. But that actually just tells you the *relative* inflation in gas vs. other items....
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December real retail sales: the good economic news keeps on coming
- by New Deal democratThe good economic news kept coming with this morning’s retail sales report for December. Remember that this is one of my favorite indicators because, adjusted for population, it...
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Industrial production continues in near-recessionary trajectory
- by New Deal democratIn contrast to this morning’s good news on consumption, production continued its lackluster 2023 all the way to the end.Total industrial production (blue in the graph below)...
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Jobless claims: bar one week, the lowest number of layoffs in over half a...
- by New Deal democratTo reiterate my theme from last week, we’re back to the virtuous scenario where almost nobody is getting laid off.Initial jobless claims last week declined -16,000 to 187,000....
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Housing construction changes little in December; but increased mortgage rates...
- by New Deal democratFor this post, I’m going to show what the housing market looks like from most to least leading of the indicators. That shows that, although this morning’s release for housing...
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Briefly noted: existing home sales appear to be bottoming near 30 year lows...
- by New Deal democratLast month I wrote that existing home sales “are likely in the process of bottoming, as they have been in the range of 3.79 million to 4.10 million for the past five...
View ArticleWeekly Indicators for January 15 - 19 at Seeking Alpha
- by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.The big headlines yesterday were that stocks made a new all time high, for the first time in two years.Meanwhile, estimated plus...
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Are working class wages really still a malady?
- by New Deal democratVia Kevin Drum, NY Times columnist Nick Kristof says, "There isn’t a good term for the bundle of pathologies that have afflicted working-class Americans . . . ."“One gauge of...
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A discussion: EV sales have been stalling, while hybrids are flying off...
- by New Deal democratIn addition to housing, the other big area where supply shock inflation has not completely resolved is vehicles. Basically almost the entirety of 2020 production was lost,...
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Attacks on Red Sea shipping, and its tie to US energy consumption
- by New Deal democratThe drought in economic data continues today. So let me continue on the issue of energy, tying into yesterday’s note on hybrid and electric vehicles.Here’s an eye-opening graph...
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Initial claims suggest the unemployment rate will drift back close to 50 year...
- by New Deal democratInitial claims increased 25,000 last week from their near all-time lows to 214,000. The four week moving average declined 1,500 to 202,250, only about 12,000 above its 50 year...
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New home sales: if you lower prices, they (buyers) will come
- by New Deal democratNew home sales are the most leading of all the housing metrics, but suffer from being heavily revised as well as extreme volatility. With that caveat out of the way, in December...
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